Use of Geographic Information Systems for spatio-temporal analysis of the effects of climate change on the availability of fisheries resources (Sardina pilchardus, Merluccius merluccius and Thunnus thynnus) in Morocco

Changes in climate variables such as temperature directly affect the habitats of marine species including fish species. In this study, we examinated the exposure level of distribution of three fish species, Sardina pilchardus, Merluccius merluccius and Thunnus thynnus. The study was carried out along Moroccan coasts in four main fishing areas. The exposure level to climate variables change was analysed based on variation of occurrence probabilties from reference period (2000-2014) and projected period (2040-2050). Two greenhouse gas emission scenarios were considered (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). AquaMaps model was used to generate predicted distributions from three environmental factors, sea surface temperature, salinity and depth. The results demonstrate that temperature and salinity will increase during next 30 years in three areas (Mediterranean area, centre atlantic area and south atlantic area) under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Thus, distributions of Sardina pilchardus and Merluccius merluccius will decrease while the distribution of Thunnus thynnus will remain stable.

Keywords: Climate change, fisheries resources, GIS, AquaMaps, Morocco