Estimation of vulnerability in food security in view of the objectives targeted by the State by 2020: Soft wheat case

Following the sharp increase in prices recorded on the international market of Soft wheat during the 2008 crisis of commodities, the priority given to food availability in Morocco resulted in a fairly chronic deficit in the trade balance. Besides these negative effects, estimates by international institutions announce that a deficit is expected for 2030 of international supply, especially in regions with high production soft wheat. Others structural’s factor seem to continue leading a small market and generating new price fluctuations. To meet the growing demand for Soft Wheat, the objective of this study is to analyze the government’s vision in the Green Moroccan Plan (GMP) for potential threats of the procurement market. The results show that this vision would mitigate slightly the potential risks (of quantity and price) to stabilize food security. However, given the dependence on climatic conditions on the one hand and the international supply market on the other, vulnerability will remain chronic, which requires much more effective policies to ensure Food security in soft wheat.

Keywords: Vulnerability, Choice Policy, Soft Wheat, Food Security.