Agroclimatic risks characterization associated with maize (Zea mays) production under climate variability in northern Togo

Abstract

The present study focuses on the analysis of climate risks that can compromise maize (Zea mays) cultivation in northern Togo in this context of climate variability and change. In order to reduce the vulnerability of maize producers in the Savanah and Kara regions of northern Togo, the characterization of agro-climatic risks with a view to planning adaptation measures is based on climate data from 1981-2017. The methodology used is based on the deterministic nature of the risks through the detection of trends and variability in rainfall and local thermal variations. The results reveal risks of early start and late end of the rainy season. The advent of heavy rains and dry days at the beginning of the season (April-May-June) showed an increase in the risk of flooding, a decrease in rainfall quality and potential risks of droughts in the early season (vegetative phase). Overall, increases in temperature and thermal extremes highlighted risks of high climatic demand in both regions, leading to increased heat stress, fertilization failure, increased water requirements and shortened cycle times, resulting in lower yields in most of the study area.

Keywords: climatic risks, variability, stress, vulnerability, Savanah and Kara, Togo